Geico 500 Predictions
- Take a look through the starting lineup in pictures for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 on Sunday, April 28 at Talladega Superspeedway.
- How Kenseth lost the 2016 Daytona 500 and gave us the closest 500 finish ever. Steve Letarte breaks down the 2016 Daytona 500 and the sequence of events that led to Matt Kenseth's ill-timed block and the closest finish in Daytona 500 history.
The latest odds for the Geico 500 (Sunday, June 21st, 3:00 PM ET) at Talladega Superspeedway favor drivers like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano. Bettors beware: many stars. The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Talladega Superspeedway on Monday June 22 from Talladega, Alabama and VegasInsider.com expert Micah Roberts previews the races, plus he provides Top 5 NASCAR Picks and Predictions for for the NASCAR Geico 500.
The Monster Energy Cup Series is back after the Easter holiday, and we’ll get our second superspeedway race of the season from Talladega for Sunday’s GEICO 500.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Who is going to win at Talladega Superspeedway?
Joe Gibbs Racing driver Kyle Busch (+850) is the co-favorite along with Penske Racing drivers Brad Keselowski (+850) and Joey Logano (+850).
Since Oct. ’15, Ford has won seven consecutive races at Talladega Superspeedway, including five checkered flags for Penske Racing.
Busch and the rest of the JGR drivers didn’t have a strong showing in qualifying, although that doesn’t preclude them from showing well Sunday. Anything can happen at a superspeedway like Talladega. However, with Ford’s dominance in the recent past, it’s prudent to focus on drivers of that manufacturer until someone can end the streak.
Stewart-Haas Racing’s Aric Almirola (+1300) posted a win in the fall race at ‘Dega last season in the 1000Bulbs.com 500, and he has rattled off three top-5 showings in the past four starts and four top-10 finishes in the past five green-flag drops at Talladega. He’ll go off from the outside of Row 1.
Almirola’s SHR teammate Clint Bowyer (+1300) turned in a best speed of 191.723 mph in qualifying Saturday and he will go off third Sunday afternoon. Bowyer is a two-time winner at the Alabama superspeedway, posting a 15.6 AFP in 26 career starts with 13 top-10 finishes and 110 laps at the track.
If you’re a little less risky, Keselowski and Logano are the safest plays. Each driver has posted three victories at Talladega since the fall ’14 race. While Keselowski struggled last season, the victim of incidents for a 30.0 AFP in his two ‘Dega starts, that makes him more likely than ever to bounce back and perform well. Logano has three straight top-5 finishes, and he has a 9.9 AFP over his past seven Talladega starts.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full-set of today’s sport odds, access them at USA TODAY Sports.
Talladega Superspeedway long-shot bet
Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson (+3200) hasn’t been hitting on all cylinders this season, but he is a tremendous value. In 10 career starts he has a 20.3 AFP at Talladega, but he has been strong on superspeedways in the past, and he has posted finishes of 13th or better in four of his past five Talladega starts. If he can find some speed, and partner with teammate Kurt Busch (+1800).
Speaking of the elder Busch Brother, he has never won at Talladega in 36 career tries, but he has eight top-5 finishes, 19 top-10 showings and 266 laps while turning in a 15.4 AFP, second-best among all active drivers with at least five starts. As such, he is a decent mid-tier sleeper, too.
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© Provided by CBS SportsJimmie Johnson crossed the overtime line just before the final caution came out.
Denny Hamlin recorded his 40th career NASCAR Cup Series victory last Sunday, becoming just the 20th driver in history to reach the milestone by winning the Dixie Vodka 400. It also was his third win of the 2020 NASCAR schedule, putting him one ahead of Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski for the lead. Hamlin will attempt to increase the margin and become the first driver to post back-to-back victories this year when he buckles in for Sunday's 2020 Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.
Hamlin, Logano, and Keselowski are 10-1 co-favorites in the latest 2020 Geico 500 odds from William Hill. However, there are three more 2020 NASCAR at Talladega contenders listed at 12-1, according to oddsmakers. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET. You'll want to check out the latest NASCAR at Talladega predictions from Micah Roberts, the legendary Vegas bookmaker who pioneered wagering on racing, before locking in any 2020 Geico 500 picks.
Roberts is among the nation's premier NASCAR betting experts, and his top pick won the first two races of the 2020 season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Denny Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit eventual winner Logano at 13-2 in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. He also nailed the victory by Hamlin, who wasn't one of the top three favorites, in the Toyota 500 last month.
Roberts also crushed the 2019 NASCAR season. Those who wagered $100 on his predicted winner in each of the 40 NASCAR races last year (an investment of $4,000) finished with a strong profit of $2,100. In addition, those who put down $50 on each of Roberts' top four choices in each of those races (an investment of $8,000) were up a head-turning $3,400. Anyone who has followed his NASCAR picks is up huge year after year.
Now, Roberts has analyzed the field and odds for Sunday's 2020 NASCAR at Talladega race. He's sharing his winner and leaderboard right here.
2020 NASCAR at Talladega expert predictions
One shocker: Roberts is low on Kyle Busch, even though he's one of the top 2020 Geico 500 contenders at 12-1. In fact, Roberts says Busch, who has recorded just one victory and eight top-10 finishes in 29 career starts at Talladega, doesn't even crack the top 15.
'His lone win (here) came in 2008,' Roberts told SportsLine. 'He's desperate for his first victory of 2020, but patience appears to be a problem with him at Talladega. That, and just no luck at all.'
Another curveball: Roberts is high on Ricky Stenhouse Jr., a long shot at 20-1 in the latest NASCAR at Talladega odds. The 32-year-old has recorded only two top-10 finishes this season but has had his best Cup Series performances on this track. Stenhouse has registered eight top-10s in 13 career starts at Talladega, including a victory in this race in 2017, one of his two wins in 268 series outings.
'His 11th-place average at Talladega is the best among active drivers with at least three starts,' Roberts told SportsLine. 'His team has also had success this season with two top-five finishes.'
How to make 2020 NASCAR at Talladega picks
Roberts also is high on a dark horse who nearly won at Talladega last season. This driver is being underestimated by oddsmakers, and anyone who backs him could hit it big. You can only see who it is here.
So who wins the 2020 Geico 500? And which massive long shot stuns NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected 2020 NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard from the nation's premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.
2020 NASCAR at Talladega odds (via William Hill)
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Kyle Busch 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Kurt Busch 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 22-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
William Byron 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Matt DiBenedetto 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Bubba Wallace 30-1
Austin Dillon 35-1
Matt Kenseth 35-1
Ryan Newman 40-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Chris Buescher 50-1
John Hunter Nemechek 50-1
Michael McDowell 60-1
Ryan Preece 60-1
Cole Custer 75-1
Ty Dillon 75-1
Brendan Gaughan 75-1
Corey LaJoie 125-1
Brennan Poole 150-1
Daniel Suarez 150-1
Joey Gase 250-1
Timmy Hill 250-1
Gray Gaulding 300-1
Quin Houff 400-1
B.J. McLeod 400-1
Predictions For Geico 500
J.J. Yeley 400-1